What If Series – 3

WHAT IF SERIES

Abalinx Peter Adamis 10 May 2016

What if The Double Dissolution was a failure and the Senate was controlled by the Greens and the Xenophon Party. What would that do to the Liberal Party and most of all to Malcolm Turnbull? Malcolm Turnbull is expected to win, but not by the huge mandate that is expected. It will be a risk worth taking as the deadlock must be broken one way or another.A copy of the article may be downloaded by clicking on: WHAT IF SERIES – 3

The public is fed up with the poor behaviour of politicians in general and Malcolm Turnbull’s is attempting to bring about some sanity and rules of engagement in Parliament However he is hampered by his inability to soothe the wounds of the political coup and his attempted massacre of the Tony abbot Forces. The best advice policies under such circumstance is is bring Tony Abbott into the inner cabinet and thus draw upon the vast resources of finance and human capital of the conservative right of the Liberal Party.

The 2016 Federal election is gearing up to be one of brinkmanship, full of risks, walking on a tight wire above the treacherous falls of the unknown depths of the political abyss below. The compilation of this article is a derivative of a number of outlets including news media, election data, polling information, word of mouth, election monitoring and perception of public opinion. At this point in time it is the Greens who appear to have tapped into the grassroots of Australian electorate.

Therefore one could say that this election promises to be like no other and already the first shots have been fired across the bows of the Labor and the Greens ships bows. Bill Shorten to his credit performed well recently in Tasmania but will he be able to sustain it right up to Election Day. Malcolm Turnbull on the other hand is becoming a shrewd and cunning operator in measuring out the line on the starboard side to ascertain the depths of public opinion.

The Greens waiting in the wings are not to be underestimated. Di Natale has been for some time influencing his party towards changing their voting patterns in order to increase their presence at both houses. Di Natale has identified and captured the imagination of the wider electorate by tapping into the Australian psyche and realising that the public has had enough of both Liberals and labor negative behaviour an antics in and outside parliament.

As such he and his parliamentary colleagues and supporters are creating and making alliances in order to increase their presence on Election Day. Di Natale and Malcolm Turnbull’s attitude towards climate change and other similar policies are very similar and it will not take long before the Greens become a political force to be reckoned with at the expense of both major parties.

Victoria is struggling to retain its Jewel in the crown status it once enjoyed under Michael Kroger some many years ago and Liberal insiders are hoping that with Michael’s charismatic, and practical approach to bringing people together will become a reality. However Michael Kroger has a huge task ahead of him in his endeavours to rebuild the fortunes of the Liberal party Victorian Division after a period of disastrous administrations.

However his decision to preference the Greens is being met with some scepticism within the rank and file, but there may be a method to his madness. Whatever the case maybe, Michael Kroger’s decision to preference the Greens has already prosecuted the jitters amongst Labor in the seats of Wills, Chisholm and McEwen.

VICTORIAN SEATS AT STAKE.

DUNKLEY Held by: Bruce Billson (Lib, retiring) Margin: 5.6%. The retiring Billson, who was dumped from cabinet after Malcolm Turnbull ousted Tony Abbott, will throw a complicating factor into the Liberals’ bid to retain this south eastern Melbourne seat, held by Billson since 1996.

An above average performer who has done much to increase Liberals chances at the next election. A tireless performer who has always had the interests of the nation first and this has been translated into positive outcomes in the seat of Dunkley. Bruce will be hard to be replaced.

DEAKIN Held by: Michael Sukkar (Lib) Margin: 3.2%. The seat on Melbourne’s eastern fringe has followed the government of the day since 1996. Michael is one of nature’s gentlemen, a shrewd political operator who owes his elevation to his political mentor Sandra Mercer Moore, a long-time political activist and past Liberal Party Metropolitan President. Michael has been an extraordinary breath of fresh bringing innovative and new concepts of leadership to the electorate. He is expected to win.

CORANGAMITE Held by: Sarah Henderson (Lib) Margin: 3.9% Labor’s most marginal seat going into the 2013 election was always expected to fall, particularly as the Liberals ran a well-known candidate in former broadcast journalist Henderson, who faces a battle to keep her seat. A trier who has worked hard to shore up the electorate in her party favour. It is not believed that the preference to the Greens is going to have any great effect on the margin.

LA TROBE Held by: Jason Wood (Lib) Margin: 4%. Like nearby Deakin, a Liberal gain in 2013. One of the more volatile Victorian seats, which often bucks the trend of the overall election result. FORDE Held by: Bert van Manen (LNP) Margin: 4.4%. One of the most-watched seats in 2013 after Labor signed up former premier Peter Beattie to try to win back the seat it lost in 2010.

The move failed, with van Manen shoring up his margin with a swing of 2.8%. Labor won this seat in 2007 with the biggest swing of that election, 14.4%.  Jason is expected to win the seat, after all he has not been idle since his election. A likeable chap who goes to extraordinary lengths to ensure that needs of his electorate are met.

INDI Held by: Cathy McGowan (Ind) Margin: 0.3% (over Lib) McGowan’s boilover victory against sitting Liberal Sophie Mirabella was one of the stories of the 2013 election. Mirabella is back to try to regain the seat in Victoria’s northeast and restart her political career.

Sophie is known to be a tough bird, not afraid to get into the trenches and battle it out toe to toe with the toughest of adversaries. Maybe it’s her Greek background or her desire to embrace the people of Indi again that spurs her on to achieving her objectives. Not afraid of a stoush and not one to walk away from anything. A sold performer who needs to reinvent herself and get back into touch with the very people that she alienated. She is in there with a chance.

CHISHOLM Held by: Anna Burke (ALP, retiring) Margin: 1.6% The retirement of the former speaker of the lower house has given the Liberal Party hope of snatching this eastern Melbourne seat that Burke has held since 1998. Her opponent at the time was Peter Vlahos the former Lord Mayor of City of Monash was a shoe in to win in; was unfortunately let down by errors of judgement and misrepresentation at the administrative and logistics level.
Anna Burke has been one of Labor’s darling and spectacular performs. Straight shooter, honest and well-liked by all her constituents in the electorate. A hard act to follow but Labor is expected to do well. Julia banks who has a Greek background is relatively new to the Liberal party but by all accounts is not afraid to get out on the hustings and battle it out. She has a long learning curve and expected to do well but her efforts may not be enough to bring her over the line.

BRUCE Held by: Alan Griffin (ALP, retiring) Margin: 1.8% As in Burke’s seat, the departure of a popular member in Griffin provides hope for the Liberals to claim this south eastern Melbourne seat for the first time since 1996. Loved by many on all sides of the political divide, he will be sorely missed by the electorate. Labor is expected to scrape through despite the appearance of a newcomer to the scene.
The Liberals on the other hand will have a difficult time convincing the electorate that it’s time for a change. Voters are expected to be influenced by the performance of Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull. Suffice to say surprises can always happen during an election campaign depending on how well the incumbents perform and public opinion is at the time of election. Both sides are expected to expend vast sums of money to win the hearts and minds of the electorate.

WILLS. The seat is currently held by Kelvin Thompson who successfully held the seat against all opposition. The seat of Wills was held by Bob Hawke from 1980-1992 and won by a local identity Phil Cleary, an independent and from 1993 to 1996. In 2013. Kelvin Thompson decisively won the seat with 65 per cent of the two-party preferred vote from the Greens. However the backroom brawls within Labor’s ranks of who was to replace him became legendary and it was a tossup up between the supporters of Bill Shorten, Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard.

Suffice to say, Peter Khalil won on the day after a battle of wits and influential behind the scenes manoeuvring by all sides involved. Deals were made according to party factions and the best man won. The recent decision by Liberal party President, Michael Kroger to preference the Greens has rattled Labor but not diminished Peter Kahlil’s is a likeable chap whose ardour to campaign vigorously and maintain the seat knows no bounds. Labor is expected to win the seat.

Note: Many thanks to the Australian political resources.

As always, my apologies for the poor grammar, punctuation and savagery of the English language. All that I can say is that it is great to be alive.

PETER ADAMIS 18 APRIL 2016Peter Adamis is a Journalist/Social Media Commentator and writer. He is a retired Australian military serviceman and an Industry organisational & Occupational (OHS) & Training Consultant whose interests are within the parameters of domestic and international political spectrum.  He is an avid blogger and contributes to domestic and international community news media outlets as well as to local and Ethnic News.  He holds a Bachelor   of Adult Learning & Development (Monash), Grad Dip Occupational Health & Safety, (Monash), Dip. Training & Assessment, Dip Public Administration, and Dip Frontline Management. Website: abalinx.com Contact via  Email: abalinx@gmail.com or via Mobile: 0409965538

 

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