Coalition Electoral Performance 2025 – One observer’s opinion
22 May 2025
The 2025 federal election in Victoria represented a watershed moment for the Coalition, revealing both remarkable successes and significant challenges. The electoral outcomes across Victorian electorates painted a complex picture of campaign effectiveness, highlighting the critical importance of adapting traditional campaign strategies to modern electoral dynamics.
In the successful campaigns, several elements stood out for their exceptional execution and strategic innovation. Aaron Violi’s retention of Casey exemplified modern campaign excellence, successfully integrating traditional community engagement with cutting-edge digital strategies. His campaign particularly excelled in creating a robust digital presence that resonated with younger voters while maintaining strong connections with local business networks. Violi’s approach to environmental policy demonstrated sophisticated understanding of community concerns, while his youth engagement programs built sustainable stakeholder relationships across diverse community groups.
Zoe McKenzie’s victory in Flinders showcased the power of balanced representation. Her campaign successfully bridged the urban-rural divide through targeted messaging, developing strong environmental credentials while maintaining business support. McKenzie’s effective resource allocation strategies and comprehensive community consultation frameworks built lasting partnerships with local stakeholder groups, creating a model for future campaigns in mixed demographic electorates.
Darren Chester’s campaign in Gippsland demonstrated exemplary regional representation through strong advocacy for agricultural interests and effective infrastructure development initiatives. Chester’s balanced approach to traditional and progressive concerns, enhanced by sophisticated digital engagement strategies, proved particularly effective in maintaining broad-based support across the electorate.
Sam Birrell’s success in Nicholls highlighted the importance of sector-specific expertise, particularly in agricultural and water management issues. His strong relationships within the agricultural sector, combined with effective industry stakeholder engagement and comprehensive regional coverage, demonstrated the continuing importance of deep local knowledge in regional electorates.
However, the election also revealed significant challenges through several unsuccessful campaigns. The loss of Aston, Bruce and others highlighted critical weaknesses in demographic engagement and digital presence. Similar challenges emerged in, where campaigns struggled with community traction and multicultural outreach. In Cooper for example, difficulties connecting with progressive voters, while in Fraser revealed the impact of resource limitations on campaign effectiveness.
These contrasting outcomes point to several critical success factors for future campaigns. Successful campaigns consistently demonstrated superior community engagement through regular constituent interactions, active participation in local events, and strong stakeholder relationship management. They also showed sophisticated resource allocation through targeted demographic engagement strategies, strong volunteer coordination programs, and effective digital platform utilization.
Looking forward, the Coalition must address several key areas to enhance campaign effectiveness. Digital infrastructure development emerges as a critical priority, requiring comprehensive platform development, sophisticated analytics capabilities, and enhanced social media presence. Community engagement needs strengthening through improved stakeholder relations and volunteer coordination programs.
Medium-term strategies should focus on professional development, including enhanced candidate training programs and improved campaign management systems. Resource optimization requires better funding allocation systems and enhanced volunteer management programs. Long-term development must address demographic adaptation through sophisticated voter targeting systems and enhanced multicultural engagement programs.
Implementation of these recommendations requires a structured approach. Immediate actions should focus on establishing comprehensive digital platforms and building local network frameworks. Medium-term implementation should prioritize training program development and funding system creation. Throughout this process, attention must be paid to maintaining strong local presence and community connections. The path forward demands a balanced approach combining traditional strengths with modern campaign techniques. Success will require sustained commitment to digital transformation, community engagement, professional development, and resource optimization. Particular attention must be paid to demographic adaptation and infrastructure enhancement.
Through strategic implementation of these recommendations, the Coalition can build stronger, more effective campaigns across Victorian electorates. The focus must remain on developing comprehensive digital capabilities while maintaining strong community connections. Professional development of candidates and campaign staff, combined with optimized resource allocation, will be crucial for future success.
The election results also demonstrate that electoral success in modern Victoria requires sophisticated campaign strategies that balance traditional community engagement with modern digital techniques. Future campaigns must develop stronger youth appeal, enhance multicultural engagement, and build progressive credentials while maintaining traditional support bases.
Success in future elections will depend on the Coalition’s ability to adapt to changing demographic patterns while maintaining its core values and community connections. This requires sustained investment in digital infrastructure, professional development, and community engagement programs. Only through comprehensive implementation of these strategies can the Coalition ensure continued electoral competitiveness in Victoria’s evolving political landscape.
The analysis of the 2025 election results also reveals crucial insights about resource management and demographic engagement. Successful campaigns demonstrated exceptional ability to allocate limited resources effectively, prioritizing high-impact activities while maintaining broad community presence. This was particularly evident in targeted digital advertising, strategic event planning, and efficient volunteer deployment.
Demographic engagement emerged as a critical differentiator between successful and unsuccessful campaigns. Winning campaigns showed sophisticated understanding of their electorates’ changing demographics, adapting messaging and outreach strategies accordingly. This was especially important in areas experiencing significant population shifts or generational change.
The role of digital strategy proved particularly significant. Successful campaigns leveraged social media platforms effectively, creating engaging content that resonated with younger voters while maintaining credibility with traditional supporters. They also utilized data analytics to target messages precisely, ensuring campaign resources were deployed where they could have maximum impact.
Community engagement strategies also showed marked evolution. Successful campaigns moved beyond traditional meet-and-greet events to create meaningful dialogue with constituents through various channels. This included online forums, issue-specific workshops, and targeted community consultations. These engagement strategies proved particularly effective in building lasting connections with diverse community groups.
Professional development emerged as another crucial factor. Successful candidates demonstrated strong policy knowledge, effective communication skills, and deep understanding of their communities. This highlights the importance of comprehensive candidate training programs and ongoing professional development for campaign staff. The election results also underscore the importance of balanced messaging. Successful campaigns effectively communicated both local and national issues, connecting federal policies to local concerns. They maintained consistent messaging across all platforms while adapting tone and content for different audiences.
Infrastructure support played a vital role in campaign effectiveness. Campaigns with strong organizational infrastructure, including well-developed volunteer networks and efficient administrative systems, showed greater resilience and adaptability. This highlights the need for sustained investment in campaign infrastructure between elections. Looking ahead, several key priorities emerge for future campaign development. First, digital capability enhancement must be prioritized, including investment in sophisticated data analytics and social media management tools. Second, community engagement strategies need modernization, incorporating both traditional and digital outreach methods.
Professional development programs require expansion, focusing on both candidate preparation and campaign staff training. Resource management systems need enhancement to ensure more efficient allocation of limited campaign resources. Demographic engagement strategies must evolve to better connect with changing voter populations. Implementation of these recommendations requires careful planning and sustained commitment. Short-term priorities should focus on immediate capability gaps, particularly in digital infrastructure and community engagement. Medium-term development should address systemic issues in professional development and resource management.
Long-term strategic planning must focus on building sustainable campaign infrastructure and developing sophisticated voter engagement capabilities. This includes investment in data analytics capabilities, professional development programs, and community engagement frameworks. Success in future elections will increasingly depend on the Coalition’s ability to adapt to changing electoral dynamics while maintaining its core values and community connections. This requires balanced investment in both traditional campaign methods and modern digital techniques. The challenges identified in the 2025 election provide valuable lessons for future campaign development. Failed campaigns often showed common weaknesses in digital presence, community engagement, and resource management. Addressing these weaknesses must be a priority in future campaign planning.
Ultimately, the path to future electoral success requires comprehensive implementation of identified recommendations while maintaining flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances. This includes sustained investment in digital infrastructure, professional development, and community engagement programs. The Coalition’s future electoral success in Victoria depends on its ability to evolve while maintaining its core strengths. This requires careful balance between tradition and innovation, local focus and broader messaging, and traditional and modern campaign techniques.
Through strategic implementation of these recommendations and careful attention to lessons learned from both successful and unsuccessful campaigns, the Coalition can build stronger, more effective campaign capabilities across Victorian electorates. This will ensure continued electoral competitiveness in an increasingly complex and dynamic political landscape. The 2025 election results demonstrate that success requires sophisticated, multi-faceted campaign strategies that effectively combine traditional strengths with modern techniques. Only through comprehensive implementation of these strategies can the Coalition maintain and enhance its electoral position in Victoria’s evolving political environment.
The above information was gleaned from the Australian Electorate Commission, News articles, observations and the unpublished book: “Charting the Future – A Way Forward for the Liberal Party Victorian Division”.
Peter Adamis
Freelance Journalist